Tuesday, 14 January 2014

2013 Academy Award Final Predictions

by
Julien Faddoul

Precursor prizes are listed with each corresponding nominee. With Best Picture I am predicting 9. For the rest, the top 5 serve as my official predictions. Lock them in. 


BEST PICTURE


LOCK
1.     American Hustle – Columbia Pictures   (Golden Globe, NYFCC)
2.     12 Years a Slave – Fox Searchlight   (Golden Globe, NYFCO, LAFCA, BSFC, OFCS, SLGFCA, DFWFCA, IFJA, SEFCA, SFFCC, HFCS, KCFCC, CFCA)
3.     Gravity – Warner Bros   (LAFCA)
4.     Captain Phillips – Columbia Pictures

VERY LIKELY
5.     Nebraska – Paramount Pictures
6.     The Wolf of Wall Street – Paramount Pictures

LIKELY
7.     Dallas Buyers Club – Focus Features

MAYBE
8.     Her – Warner Bros   (NBR, LAFCA, DFCS, AFCA)
9.     Philomena – The Weinstein Company
                                                                                                                                                      

10.  Saving Mr Banks – Walt Disney Pictures
11.  Inside Llewyn Davis – CBS Films   (TFCA)
12.  August: Osage County – The Weinstein Company
13.  Blue Jasmine – Sony Pictures Classics

NO CHANCE
14.  Lee Daniels’ The Butler – The Weinstein Company
15.  All is Lost – Lionsgate
16.  Rush – Universal Pictures
17.  Fruitvale Station – The Weinstein Company
18.  The Secret Life of Walter Mitty – 20th Century Fox


BEST DIRECTOR


LOCK
1.     Gravity – Alfonso Cuaron   (Golden Globe, NYFCO, LAFCA, OFCS, DFWFCA, SFFCC, HFCS, KCFCC, DFCS, TFCA, AFCA)
2.     12 Years a Slave – Steve McQueen   (NYFCC, BSFC, SLGFCA, IFJA, SEFCA, KCFCC, CFCA)

VERY LIKELY
3.     American Hustle – David O. Russell
4.     Captain Phillips – Paul Greengrass

LIKELY

MAYBE
5.     Her – Spike Jonze   (NBR)


6.     The Wolf of Wall Street – Martin Scorsese
7.     Nebraska – Alexander Payne
8.     Inside Llewyn Davis – Joel and Ethan Coen
9.     Philomena – Stephen Frears

NO CHANCE
10.  Dallas Buyers Club – Jean Marc Vallee
11.  Rush – Ron Howard
12.  All is Lost – J.C. Chandor
13.  Lee Daniels’ The Butler – Lee Daniels
14.  Saving Mr Banks – John Lee Hancock
15.  The Secret Life of Walter Mitty – Ben Stiller
16.  August: Osage County – John Wells
17.  Fruitvale Station – Ryan Coogler
18.  Blue Jasmine – Woody Allen


BEST ACTOR


LOCK
1.     Dallas Buyers Club – Matthew McConaughey   (Golden Globe, DFWFCA, DFCS)
2.     Nebraska – Bruce Dern   (NBR, LAFCA)
3.     12 Years a Slave – Chiwetel Ejiofor   (NYFCO, BSFC, OFCS, SLGFCA, IFJA, SEFCA, SFFCC, HFCS, KCFCC, CFCA, AFCA)

VERY LIKELY
4.     Captain Phillips – Tom Hanks

LIKELY
5.     The Wolf of Wall Street – Leonardo DiCaprio   (Golden Globe)


MAYBE

6.     All is Lost Robert Redford   (NYFCC)
7.     Her – Joaquin Phoenix
8.     American Hustle – Christian Bale
9.     Lee Daniels’ The Butler – Forrest Whitaker
10.  Inside Llewyn Davis – Oscar Isaac   (TFCA)

NO CHANCE
11.  The Fifth Estate – Benedict Cumberbatch
12.  Fruitvale Station – Michael B. Jordan
13.  Mandela: Long Walk to Freedom – Idris Elba


BEST ACTRESS


LOCK
1.     Blue Jasmine – Cate Blanchett   (Golden Globe, NYFCC, NYFCO, LAFCA, BSFC, OFCS, SLGFCA, DFWFCA, SEFCA, SFFCC, CFCA, TFCA)
2.     Gravity – Sandra Bullock   (HFCS, KCFCC)
3.     Saving Mr Banks – Emma Thompson   (NBR)

VERY LIKELY
4.     Philomena – Judi Dench

LIKELY

MAYBE
5.     American Hustle – Amy Adams   (Golden Globe)


6.     August: Osage County – Meryl Streep
7.     Blue is the Warmest Color – Adèle Exarchopoulos   (LAFCA, IFJA)
8.     Short Term 12 – Brie Larson   (DFCS, AFCA)

NO CHANCE
9.     Labor Day – Kate Winslet


BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR


LOCK
1.     Dallas Buyers Club – Jared Leto   (Golden Globe, NYFCC, NYFCO, LAFCA, SLGFCA, DFWFCA, SEFCA, HFCS, DFCS, CFCA, TFCA, AFCA)
2.     12 Years a Slave – Michael Fassbender   (OFCS, KCFCC)
3.     Captain Phillips – Barkhad Abdi   (IFJA)

VERY LIKELY

LIKELY
4.     Rush – Daniel Bruhl

MAYBE
5.     American Hustle – Bradley Cooper


6.     Enough Said – James Gandolfini   (BSFC)
7.     Nebraska – Will Forte   (NBR)
8.     Saving Mr Banks – Tom Hanks
9.     The Wolf of Wall Street – Jonah Hill

NO CHANCE
10.  Spring Breakers – James Franco   (LAFCA, SFFCC)


BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS


LOCK
1.     12 Years a Slave Lupita Nyong’o   (NYFCO, LAFCA, OFCS, SLGFCA, DFWFCA, SEFCA, HFCS, KCFCC, CFCA, AFCA)
2.     American Hustle – Jennifer Lawrence   (Golden Globe, NYFCC, IFJA, SFFCC, TFCA)

VERY LIKELY
3.     Nebraska – June Squibb   (BSFC)
4.     Lee Daniels’ The Butler – Oprah Winfrey

LIKELY
5.     August: Osage County – Julia Roberts

MAYBE


6.     Blue Jasmine – Sally Hawkins
7.     Fruitvale Station – Octavia Spencer   (NBR)
8.     August: Osage County – Margo Martindale
9.     12 Years a Slave – Sarah Paulson

NO CHANCE
10.  Her – Scarlett Johansson   (DFCS)
11.  Mandela: Long Walk to Freedom – Naomie Harris
12.  Inside Llewyn Davis – Carey Mulligan


BEST ANIMATED FILM


LOCK
1.     Frozen   (Golden Globe, SLGFCA, DFWFCA, IFJA, SEFCA, SFFCC, HFCS, KCFCC, AFCA)

VERY LIKELY
2.     The Wind Rises   (NYFCC, NBR, NYFCO, BSFC, OFCS, CFCA, TFCA)

LIKELY                                   
3.     Monsters University
4.     The Croods
5.     Ernest & Celestine   (LAFCA)

MAYBE


6.     Despicable Me 2   (KCFCC)
7.     Epic

NO CHANCE
8.     Free Birds
9.     Turbo
10.  Cloudy with a Chance of Meatballs 2


BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

LOCK
1.     Her – Spike Jonze   (Golden Globe, NYFCO, OFCS, SLGFCA, IFJA, KCFCC, DFCS, CFCA, TFCA, AFCA)
2.     American Hustle – Eric Singer, David O. Russell   (NYFCC, SEFCA, SFFCC)
3.     Nebraska – Bob Nelson

VERY LIKELY

LIKELY                                   
4.     Inside Llewyn Davis – Joel Coen, Ethan Coen   (NBR)

MAYBE
5.     Blue Jasmine – Woody Allen


6.     Fruitvale Station – Ryan Coogler
7.     Enough Said – Nicole Holofcener   (BSFC)
8.     Lee Daniels’ The Butler – Danny Strong
9.     Rush – Peter Morgan
10.  Dallas Buyers Club – Craig Borten, Melissa Wallack

NO CHANCE
11.  Saving Mr Banks – Kelly Marchel, Sue Smith
12.  Gravity – Alfonso Cuaron, Jonas Cuaron


BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

LOCK
1.     12 Years a Slave – Steve McQueen, John Ridley   (OFCS, SLGFCA, DFWFCA, SEFCA, SFFCC, HFCS, KCFCC, CFCA, AFCA)

VERY LIKELY

LIKELY
2.     Captain Phillips – Billy Ray
3.     Philomena – Steve Coogan, Bill Pope
4.     Before Midnight – Richard Linklater, Julie Delpy, Ethan Hawke   (LAFCA, IFJA)

MAYBE
5.     The Wolf of Wall Street – Terence Winter   (NBR)


6.     August: Osage County – Tracy Letts
7.     Short Term 12 – Destin Cretton

NO CHANCE
8.     The Secret Life of Walter Mitty – Steve Conrad
9.     Blue is the Warmest Color – Abdellatif Kechiche, Ghalia Lacroix


BEST FOREIGN-LANGUAGE FILM

LOCK
1.     The Great Beauty – Italy   (Golden Globe)
2.     The Broken Circle Breakdown - Belgium

VERY LIKELY
3.     Two Lives – Germany

LIKELY                                   
4.     The Notebook – Hungary

MAYBE
5.     The Hunt – Denmark


6.     Omar – Palestine
7.     The Grandmaster – Hong Kong
8.     The Missing Picture – Cambodia
9.     A Day in the Life of an Iron Picker – Bosnia & Herzegovina

NO CHANCE


BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY

LOCK
1.     Gravity – Emmanuel Lubez   (NYFCO, LAFCA, BSFC, OFCS, DFWFCA, SEFCA, SFFCC, HFCS, CFCA, AFCA)
2.     12 Years a Slave – Sean Bobbitt   (SLGFCA)

VERY LIKELY
3.     Inside Llewyn Davis – Bruno Delbonnel   (NYFCC)

LIKELY
4.     Prisoners – Roger Deakins

MAYBE
5.     The Grandmaster – Phillipe LeSourd


6.     Rush – Anthony Dod Mantle
7.     Nebraska – Phedon Papamichael
8.     Captain Phillips – Barry Ackroyd
9.     Her – Hoyt Van Hoetema
10.  The Great Gatsby – Simon Duggan

NO CHANCE
11.  All is Lost – Frank G. DeMarco, Peter Zuccarini


BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN

LOCK
1.     Gravity – Andy Nicholson   (SFFCC, CFCA)

VERY LIKELY
2.     12 Years a Slave – Adam Stockhausen

LIKELY
3.     The Hobbit: The Desolation of Smaug – Dan Hennah
4.     Saving Mr Banks – Michael Corenblith

MAYBE
5.     The Great Gatsby – Catherine Martin   (SLGFCA)


6.     Her – KK Barrett   (LAFCA)
7.     Inside Llewyn Davis – Jess Gonchor
8.     American Hustle – Judy Becker
9.     Man of Steel – Alex McDowell

NO CHANCE
10.  The Invisible Woman – Maria Djurkovic
11.  The Grandmaster – William Chang


BEST COSTUME DESIGN

LOCK
1.     12 Years a Slave – Patricia Norris
2.     American Hustle – Michael Wilkinson
3.     The Great Gatsby – Catherine Martin

VERY LIKELY
4.     Saving Mr Banks – Daniel Orlandi

LIKELY

MAYBE
5.     The Invisible Woman – Michael O’Connor


6.     Lee Daniels’ The Butler – Ruth E. Carter
7.     The Hunger Games: Catching Fire – Trish Summerville
8.     Inside Llewyn Davis – Mary Zophres
9.     The Grandmaster – William Chang
10.  The Hobbit: The Desolation of Smaug – Dan Hennah

NO CHANCE


BEST FILM EDITING

LOCK
1.     Captain Phillips – Christopher Rouse
2.     Gravity – Alfonso Cuaron, Marc Sanger  (OFCS, SFFCC, CFCA)
3.     12 Years a Slave – Joe Walker

VERY LIKELY

LIKELY
4.     American Hustle – Jay Cassidy

MAYBE
5.     The Wolf of Wall Street – Thelma Schoonmaker


6.     Rush – Mike Hill, Dan Hanley   (BSFC)
7.     Lee Daniels’ The Butler – Joe Klotz
8.     All is Lost – Pete Beaudreau
9.     Nebraska – Kevin Tent

NO CHANCE
10.  Inside Llewyn Davis – Roderick Jaynes


BEST SOUND

LOCK

VERY LIKELY
1.     Captain Phillips
2.     Gravity

LIKELY
3.     Inside Llewyn Davis

MAYBE
4.     Rush
5.     12 Years a Slave


6.     Lone Survivor
7.     All is Lost
8.     World War Z
9.     Star Trek Into Darkness
10.  Man of Steel
11.  Frozen
12.  The Great Gatsby
13.  Pacific Rim
14.  Iron Man 3

NO CHANCE


BEST SOUND EDITING

LOCK

VERY LIKELY
1.     Captain Phillips
2.     Gravity

LIKELY
3.     Lone Survivor

MAYBE
4.     Rush
5.     World War Z


6.     All is Lost
7.     12 Years a Slave
8.     Inside Llewyn Davis
9.     Star Trek Into Darkness
10.  Man of Steel
11.  Frozen
12.  The Great Gatsby
13.  Pacific Rim
14.  Iron Man 3

NO CHANCE


BEST VISUAL EFFECTS

LOCK
1.     Gravity

VERY LIKELY
2.     The Hobbit: The Desolation of Smaug
3.     Iron Man 3

LIKELY
4.     Pacific Rim

MAYBE
5.     World War Z


6.     Man of Steel
7.     Star Trek Into Darkness
8.     Oblivion
9.     The Secret Life of Walter Mitty
10.  Oz the Great and Powerful
11.  The Great Gatsby
12.  Elysium
13.  The Wolverine
14.  Thor: The Dark World

NO CHANCE
15.  After Earth


BEST MAKEUP

LOCK

VERY LIKELY

LIKELY
1.     American Hustle
2.     Jackass Presents: Bad Grandpa

MAYBE
3.     The Lone Ranger


4.     Dallas Buyers Club
5.     The Great Gatsby
6.     The Hunger Games: Catching Fire
7.     Hansel & Gretel: Witch Hunters

NO CHANCE


BEST ORIGINAL SCORE

LOCK
1.     Gravity – Steven Price
2.     12 Years a Slave – Hans Zimmer

VERY LIKELY

LIKELY
3.     Philomena – Alexandre Desplat
4.     Saving Mr Banks – Thomas Newman

MAYBE
5.     All is Lost – Alex Ebert   (Golden Globe)


6.     The Book Thief – John Williams
7.     Captain Phillips – Henry Jackman
8.     Rush – Hans Zimmer
9.     The Hobbit: The Desolation of Smaug – Howard Shore
10.  Mandela: Long Walk to Freedom – Alan Heffes

NO CHANCE


BEST ORIGINAL SONG

LOCK
1.     Frozen – “Let it Go”

VERY LIKELY

LIKELY

MAYBE
2.     Her – “The Moon Song”
3.     The Great Gatsby – “Young and Beautiful”
4.     Lee Daniels’ The Butler – “In the Middle of the Night”
5.     The Hobbit: The Desolation of Smaug – “I See Fire”


6.     Mandela: Long Walk to Freedom – “Ordinary Love”
7.     Lee Daniels’ The Butler – “You and I Ain’t Nothin No More”
8.     Short Term 12 – “So You Know What’s It’s Like”
9.     One Chance – “Sweeter Than Fiction”
10.  All is Lost – “Amen”
11.  Despicable Me 2 – “Happy”
12.  The Hunger Games: Catching Fire – “Atlas”

NO CHANCE


BEST DOCUMENTARY

LOCK
1.     20 Feet from Stardom   (DFWFCA, HFCS)
2.     Blackfish   (SLGFCA)

VERY LIKELY

LIKELY
3.     The Square

MAYBE
4.     God Loves Uganda
5.     The Act of Killing   (NYFCO, BSFC, OFCS, IFJA, SEFCA, SFFCC, KCFCC, CFCA, AFCA)


6.     Stories We Tell   (LAFCA, DFCS)
7.     Dirty Wars
8.     Tim’s Vermeer
9.     Cutie and the Boxer
10.  The Armstrong Lie
11.  The Crash Reel
12.  First Cousin: Once Removed
13.  Life According to Sam
14.  Pussy Riot: A Punk Prayer
15.  Which May is the Front Line from Here? The Life and Time of Tim Hetherington

NO CHANCE

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