Wednesday, 13 January 2016

My Predictions for the 88th Academy Awards Nominations

by
Julien Faddoul


The nominations for the 88th Academy Awards are tomorrow morning. Despite their nonsensicality, I always have fun predicting them every year. Here are my final predictions.

I have made the necessary amount of predictions correlating to the limit of each category – 10 for PICTURE, 3 for MAKEUP and 5 for everything else – after which I list my alternates which I have limited myself to only 3.


BEST PICTURE

The Big Short, Bridge of Spies, Mad Max, The Martian, The Revenant and Spotlight are all in. Brooklyn, Carol, Room and Compton are all vulnerable. It all depends on how many nominees ultimately make it through (decided by a preferential ballot). The race this year has been thinner than usual with all 13 of these films having their own ardent supporters and detractors, and then some.

Predictions:

The Big Short
Bridge of Spies
Brooklyn
Carol
Mad Max: Fury Road
The Martian
The Revenant
Room
Spotlight
Straight Outta Compton


Alternates

Inside Out
Sicario
Trumbo




DIRECTOR

I’m with the DGA line-up here, but if any of the five is vulnerable, it’s Miller.

Predictions:

The Big Short – Adam McKay
Mad Max: Fury Road – George Miller
The Martian – Ridley Scott
The Revenant – Alejandro Gonzalez Inarritu
Spotlight – Thomas McCarthy


Alternates

Bridge of Spies – Steven Spielberg
Carol – Todd Haynes
Sicario – Denis Villeneuve



ACTOR

I can see both Damon and Fassbender being left off, as both those performances rubbed some people the wrong way.

Predictions:

The Danish Girl – Eddie Redmayne
The Martian – Matt Damon
The Revenant – Leonardo DiCaprio
Steve Jobs – Michael Fassbender
Trumbo – Bryan Cranston


Alternates

Black Mass – Johnny Depp
Concussion – Will Smith
Mr Holmes – Ian McKellen



ACTRESS

Okay, now we get into the great mess of the 2015 awards season. It is clear that both Rooney Mara and Alicia Vikander are committing category fraud by campaigning for supporting positions. I ultimately have to make an executive decision as to what I predict will happen and I’m taking the coward’s route and sticking with the campaign. It’s just cleaner that way, even though it might cost me in prediction points. But if either of them appears here, it will be instead of Jennifer Lawrence.

Predictions:

Brooklyn – Saoirse Ronan
Carol – Cate Blanchett
45 Years – Charlotte Rampling
Joy – Jennifer Lawrence
Room – Brie Larson


Alternates

Carol – Rooney Mara
The Danish Girl – Alicia Vikander
Grandma – Lily Tomlin



SUPPORTING ACTOR

The year’s most difficult category to pin down. There are dozens of different scenarios that could play out here and the only two I'm confident with are Stallone and Rylance. Both Tremblay and Dano are additional cases of category fraud.

Predictions:

Bridge of Spies – Mark Rylance
The Big Short – Christian Bale
Creed – Sylvester Stallone
99 Homes – Michael Shannon
Room – Jacob Tremblay


Alternates

Beasts of No Nation – Idris Elba
Love & Mercy – Paul Dano
Spotlight – Mark Ruffalo



SUPPORTING ACTRESS

Again, I have placed Vikander and Mara here. What makes things more uncertain is that Vikander could also feasible be nominated for Ex Machina (a genuinely supporting performance). In case you didn't know, an actor can't be nominated twice in the same category.

Predictions:

Carol – Rooney Mara
The Danish Girl – Alicia Vikander
The Hateful Eight – Jennifer Jason Leigh
Spotlight – Rachel McAdams
Steve Jobs – Kate Winslet


Alternates

Ex Machina – Alicia Vikander
Trumbo – Helen Mirren
Youth – Jane Fonda



ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

Most people are predicting Straight Outta Compton instead of Bridge of Spies, whose script no one particularly cared for. I’m being a square though and believe the academy will be too.

Predictions:

Bridge of Spies – Matthew Charman, Ethan Coen, Joel Coen
Ex Machina – Alex Garland
The Hateful Eight – Quentin Tarantino
Inside Out – Pete Docter, Meg LeFauve, Josh Cooley, Ronnie Del Carmen
Spotlight – Tom McCarthy, Josh Singer


Alternates

Sicario – Taylor Sheridan
Straight Outta Compton – Andrea Berloff, Jonathan Herman, S. Leigh Savidge, Alan Wenkus
Trainwreck – Amy Schumer



ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

This is fierce 6-film race and I had to leave one off. I chose Carol; not at all confident.

Predictions:

The Big Short – Adam McKay, Charles Randolph
Brooklyn – Nick Hornby
The Martian – Drew Goddard
Room – Emma Donoghue
Steve Jobs – Aaron Sorkin


Alternates

Carol – Phyllis Nagy
The Revenant – Alejandro Gonzalez Inarritu, Mark Smith
Trumbo – John McNamara



ANIMATED FILM

This category always finds some way to surprise every year. Therefore, only Inside Out is safe here.

Predictions:

Anomalisa
The Good Dinosaur
Inside Out
The Peanuts Movie
Shaun the Sheep Movie


Alternates

Boy and the World
Kahlil Gibran's The Prophet
Minions



FOREIGN-LANGUAGE FILM

Predictions:

Embrace of the Serpent – Ciro Guerra; Colombia
Labyrinth of Lies – Giulio Ricciarelli; Germany
Mustang – Deniz Gamze Erguven; France
Son of Saul – Lazlo Nemes; Hungary
Viva – Paddy Breathnach; Ireland


Alternates

The Brand New Testament – Jaco Van Dormael; Belgium
The Fencer – Klaus Haro; Finland
Theeb – Naji Abu Nowar; Jordan



CINEMATOGRAPHY

Predictions:

Carol – Edward Lachman
The Hateful Eight – Robert Richardson
Mad Max: Fury Road – John Seale
The Revenant – Emmanuel Lubezki
Sicario – Roger Deakins


Alternates

The Assassin – Ping Bin Lee
Bridge of Spies – Janusz Kaminski
The Martian – Dariusz Wolski



PRODUCTION DESIGN

Predictions:

Bridge of Spies – Adam Stockhausen; Rena DeAngelo, Bernhard Henrich
Crimson Peak – Thomas E. Sanders; Jeffrey A. Melvin, Shane Vieau
The Danish Girl – Eve Stewart; Michael Standish
Mad Max: Fury Road – Colin Gibson; Katie Sharrock, Lisa Thompson
The Martian – Arthur Max; Celia Bobak, Zoltan Horvath


Alternates

Carol – Judy Becker; Heather Loeffler
Cinderella – Dante Ferretti; Casey Banwel, Francesca Lo Schiavo
Star Wars: The Force Awakens – Rick Carter, Darren Gilford; Lee Sandales



COSTUME DESIGN

Predictions:

Brooklyn – Odile Dicks-Mireaux
Carol – Sandy Powell
Cinderella – Sandy Powell
Crimson Peak – Kate Hawley
The Danish Girl – Paco Delgado


Alternates

The Assassin – Wen-Ying Huang
Mad Max: Fury Road – Jenny Beavan
Trumbo – Daniel Orlandi



FILM EDITING

Predictions:

The Big Short – Hank Corwin
Bridge of Spies – Michael Kahn
Mad Max: Fury Road – Margaret Sixel
The Martian – Pietro Scalia
Spotlight – Tom McArdle


Alternates

The Revenant – Stephen Mirrione
Sicario – Joe Walker
Steve Jobs – Elliot Graham



SOUND

Predictions:

Mad Max: Fury Road – Ben Osmo, Chris Jenkins, Gregg Rudloff
The Martian – Mac Ruth, Paul Massey, Mark Taylor
Star Wars: The Force Awakens – Stuart Wilson, Andy Nelson, Chris Scarabosio
Straight Outta Compton – Willie Burton, Jon Taylor, Frank A. Montano
The Revenant – Chris Duesterdiek, Frank A. Montaño, Jon Taylor, Randy Thom


Alternates

Bridge of Spies – Drew Kunin, Andy Nelson, Gary Rydstrom
The Hateful Eight – Mark Ulano, Christian P. Minkler, Michael Minkler
Sicario – John Reitz, Tom Ozanich, William Sarokin



SOUND EDITING

Predictions:

Bridge of Spies – Richard Hymns
Mad Max: Fury Road – Scott Hecker, Mark Mangini, David White
The Revenant – Martin Hernandez, Randy Thom, Lon Bender
Sicario – Alan Robert Murray
Star Wars: The Force Awakens – David Accord, Matthew Wood


Alternates

The Hateful Eight – Wylie Stateman
Inside Out – Ren Klyce, Shannon Mills
The Martian – Oliver Tarney



VISUAL EFFECTS

Predictions:

Mad Max: Fury Road – Andrew Jackson, Tom Wood, Dan Oliver, Andy Williams
The Martian – Richard Stammers, Chris Lawrence, Anders Langlands, Steven Warner
The Revenant – Rich McBridge, Matt Shumway, Jason Smith, Cameron Waldbauer
Star Wars: The Force Awakens – Roger Guyett, Patrick Tubach, Neal Scanlan, Chris Corbould
The Walk – Kevin Baillie, Jim Gibbs, Viktor Muller, Sebastien Moreau


Alternates

Avengers: Age of Ultron – Christopher Townsend, Ben Snow, Alessandro Cioffi, Paul Corbould
Ex Machina – Andrew Whitehurst
Jurassic World – Tim Alexander, Glen McIntosh, Tony Plett, Michael Meinardus



MAKEUP

Predictions:

Black Mass – Joel Harlow, Gloria Casny
Mad Max: Fury Road – Lesley Vanderwalt, Damian Martin, Elka Wardega
The Revenant – Graham Johnston, Adrien Morot, Robert Pandini


Alternates

Mr. Holmes – Dave Elsey
The 100-Year-Old Man Who Climbed Out the Window and Disappeared – Eva Kozma, Erzsebet Racz
Concussion – Jacenda Burkett, Kathrine Gordon



ORIGINAL SCORE

Predictions:

Carol – Carter Burwell
The Danish Girl – Alexandre Desplat
The Hateful Eight – Ennio Morricone
Spotlight – Howard Shore
Star Wars: The Force Awakens – John Williams


Alternates

Bridge of Spies – Thomas Newman
Inside Out – Michael Giacchino
Sicario – Jóhann Jóhannsson



ORIGINAL SONG

I’m abstaining from this category this year because the songs that are in contention have been so boring and so out of my realm of consciousness.



DOCUMENTARY FEATURE

Predictions:

Amy
Cartel Land
Listen to Me Marlon
The Look of Silence
Winter on Fire: Ukraine's Fight for Freedom


Alternates

Going Clear: Scientology and the Prison of Belief
What Happened, Miss Simone?
Where to Invade Next



DOCUMENTARY SHORT

Predictions:

Claude Lanzmann: Spectres of the Shoah
A Girl in the River: The Price of Forgiveness
Last Day of Freedom
Minerita
Starting Point


Alternates

Chau, Beyond the Lines
50 Feet from Syria
The Testimony



ANIMATED SHORT

Predictions:

Bear Story (Historia de un Oso)
If I Was God...
Prologue
Sanjay's Super Team
World of Tomorrow


Alternates

Carface (Autos Portraits)
Love in the Time of March Madness
We Can't Live Without Cosmos



LIVE-ACTION SHORT

Predictions:

Ave Maria
Bis Gleich (Till Then)
Day One
Shok
Stutterer


Alternates

Everything Will Be Okay (Alles Wird Gut)
The Free Man (Zi You Ren)
Winter Light







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