by
Julien Faddoul
The nominations for the 90th Academy Awards are
tomorrow morning. Despite their nonsensicality, I always have fun predicting
them every year. Here are my final predictions.
I have made the necessary amount of predictions
correlating to the limit of each category – 10 for PICTURE, 3 for MAKEUP and 5
for everything else – after which I list my alternates which I have limited
myself to only 3. Also, this year, I abstained from the 3 SHORTS categories.
BLUE = A lock at a nomination. Bet some money.
BEST PICTURE
The trickiness of this
category always has to do with the number of nominees. I’m thinking 8 is the
number this year. Call Me by Your Name and The Post have both
waned through the guild awards and thus are in jeopardy, while I, Tonya
started weak and has grown stronger. The other 5 have all been up and down.
This is an unusually
uncertain race this year and I wouldn’t be surprised by any inclusion and/or
exclusion.
Predictions:
1. The
Shape of Water
2. Three
Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
3. Get Out
4. Ladybird
5. Dunkirk
6. Call Me
by Your Name
7. The
Post
8. I,
Tonya
9. Darkest Hour
10. The Big Sick
Alternates
11. Phantom Thread
12. Mudbound
13. The Florida Project
DIRECTOR
I’m going with the DGA lineup. If Nolan were snubbed again I’d advise everyone to stay off twitter.
Predictions:
1. The
Shape of Water – Guillermo Del Toro
2. Dunkirk – Christopher
Nolan
3. Three
Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
– Martin McDonagh
4. Get Out
– Jordan Peele
5. Ladybird – Greta Gerwig
Alternates
6. The
Post – Steven Spielberg
7. Call Me
by Your Name – Luca Guadagnino
8. Phantom
Thread – Paul Thomas Anderson
ACTOR
This category is such a headache, with only Oldman and
Chalamet having any sort of consistency during precursors. Hanks and Washington
seem like threats even though no one is talking about their performances, per
se.
Then there’s the Franco problem: In a year where
accusations of misconduct are bringing entire careers to a crashing halt, the
jury is still out on his current situation. But I think it all happened a
little too late to effect voting, and I think he’ll probably be nominated and I
think it’ll probably feel very weird for everyone concerned.
Predictions:
1. Darkest
Hour – Gary Oldman
2. Call Me
by Your Name – Timothee Chalamet
3. Phantom
Thread – Daniel Day-Lewis
4. Get Out – Daniel Kaluuya
5. The
Disaster Artist – James Franco
Alternates
6. The
Post – Tom Hanks
7. Roman
J. Israel Esq – Denzel Washington
8. Stronger – Jake Gyllenhaal
ACTRESS
The year’s simplest category with 4 bona-fide locks.
Only Streep is shaky, not least because it’s her subtlest work in years.
Predictions:
1. Three
Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
– Frances McDormand
2. Ladybird – Saoirse Ronan
3. The
Shape of Water – Sally Hawkins
4. I, Tonya – Margot Robbie
5. The
Post – Meryl Streep
Alternates
6. Molly’s
Game – Jessica Chastain
7. Victoria
and Abdul – Judi Dench
8. Battle
of the Sexes – Emma Stone
SUPPORTING ACTOR
Dafoe and Rockwell are in, and Jenkins seems likely.
The question here is whether Three
Billboards or Call Me by Your Name will
snag double spots. I think people love Harrelson too much to ignore him. And
even though it would make more sense for me to predict Hammer (showier role;
Globe nod), I’m gonna go with Stuhlbarg to upset. I just feel if the Academy
can’t recognize him this year – with terrific work in this film as well as The Shape of Water and The Post – when will they?
Predictions:
1. Three
Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
– Sam Rockwell
2. The
Florida Project – Willem Dafoe
3. The Shape of Water – Richard Jenkins
4. Three
Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri – Woody Harrelson
5. Call Me
by Your Name – Michael Stuhlbarg
Alternates
6. Call Me
by Your Name – Armie Hammer
7. All the
Money in the World – Christopher Plummer
8. Battle
of the Sexes – Steve Carell
SUPPORTING ACTRESS
All 8 women here have a viable shot. Janney and
Metcalf are safe. I don’t understand where the love of Spencer is coming from
but maybe that’s just me. And it’s been kind of delightful to see Hong Chau
still sticking in there.
Predictions:
1. I, Tonya – Allison Janney
2. Ladybird – Laurie Metcalf
3. Mudbound – Mary J. Blige
4. The Shape of Water – Octavia Spencer
5. Downsizing – Hong Chau
Alternates
6. The Big Sick – Holly Hunter
7. Phantom Thread –
Lesley Manville
8. Girls Trip – Tiffany
Haddish
ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
The toughest category of the bunch. I don’t even have
room for Darkest Hour, Dunkirk or The Florida Project, all of which wouldn’t surprise me. Even though
I’m predicting The Shape of Water to
top all films in terms of nominations this year, I just can’t believe they
would nominate that stupid screenplay when the competition is this fierce.
Predictions:
1. Three
Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
– Martin McDonagh
2. Get Out –
Jordan Peele
3. Ladybird
– Greta Gerwig
4. I,
Tonya – Steven Rogers
5. The Big
Sick – Emily Gordon, Kumail Nanjiani
Alternates
6. Phantom
Thread – Paul Thomas Anderson
7. The Post –
Liz Hannah, Josh Singer
8. The Shape of
Water – Guillermo Del Toro, Vanessa Taylor
ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
As a result of the Original category being so dense,
the Adapted side is dry as a bone. The fact that Sorkin seems like a lock for a
movie no one cares about speaks to that. Predicting something like Logan might make me look like an idiot
but whatever. You guys, with this category, you’re guess is as good as mine.
Predictions:
1. Call Me
by Your Name – James Ivory
2. Mudbound
– Dee Rees, Virgil Williams
3. Molly’s
Game – Aaron Sorkin
4. Logan –
Scott Frank, James Mangold, Michael Green
5. The
Disaster Artist – Scott Neustadter, Michael H. Weber
Alternates
6. Wonder –
Steve Conrad, Jack Thorne
7. Victoria
and Abdul – Lee Hall
8. Blade
Runner 2049 – Hampton Fancher, Michael Green
ANIMATED FILM
Coco is the only sure thing. With the other 4, I’ve decided
to go with two mainstream box-office hits and two indies. Mary and the Witch’s
Flower could sneak in there but they’ve never ever had more than two foreign
films in the lineup.
Predictions:
1. Coco
2. The
Breadwinner
3. Loving
Vincent
4. The
Boss Baby
5. Despicable
Me 3
Alternates
6. Mary
and the Witch’s Flower
7. Girl
Without Hands
8. Captain
Underpants
FOREIGN-LANGUAGE FILM
Predictions:
1. A
Fantastic Woman – Chile
2. Foxtrot – Israel
3. Loveless –
Russia
4. The
Square – Sweden
5. The
Insult – Lebanon
Alternates
6. The
Wound – South Africa
7. In the
Fade – Germany
8. Felicite –
Senegal
CINEMATOGRAPHY
Predictions:
1. Blade Runner 2049 –
Roger Deakins
2. Dunkirk – Hoyte
van Hoytema
3. The Shape of Water –
Dan Laustsen
4. Darkest Hour – Bruno
Delbonnell
5. Mudbound –
Rachel Morrison
Alternates
6. Call Me
by Your Name – Sayombhu Mukdeeprom
7. The
Post – Janusz Kaminski
8. Wonder
Wheel – Vittorio Storaro
PRODUCTION DESIGN
Predictions:
1. The Shape of Water –
Paul Austerberry
2. The Post –
Rick Carter
3. Blade Runner 2049 –
Dennis Gassner
4. Darkest
Hour – Sarah Greenwood
5. Dunkirk
– Nathan Crowley
Alternates
6. Beauty
and the Beast – Sarah Greenwood
7. Downsizing
– Stefania Cella
8. The
Greatest Showman – Nathan Crowley
COSTUME DESIGN
Predictions:
1. Phantom
Thread – Mark Bridges
2. Beauty and the
Beast – Jacqueline Durran
3. The
Shape of Water – Luis Sequeira
4. The
Post – Ann Roth
5. Victoria
and Abdul – Consolata Boyle
Alternates
6. I,
Tonya – Jennifer Johnston
7. The
Greatest Showman – Ellen Mirojnick
8. Wonder
Woman – Lindy Hemming
FILM EDITING
Predictions:
1. The
Shape of Water – Sidney Wolinsky
2. Dunkirk – Lee
Smith
3. Three
Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri – Jon Gregory
4. Get Out –
Gregory Plotkin
5. Baby
Driver – Jonathan Amos, Paul Machliss
Alternates
6. I,
Tonya – Tatiana S. Riegel
7. The
Post – Michael Kahn, Sarah Broshar
8. Call Me
by Your Name – Walter Fasano
SOUND
Predictions:
1. Dunkirk
2. Star Wars: The Last
Jedi
3. The Shape of Water
4. Blade
Runner 2049
5. Get Out
Alternates
6. Baby
Driver
7. Wonder
Woman
8. Darkest
Hour
SOUND EDITING
Predictions:
1. Dunkirk
2. Star Wars: The Last
Jedi
3. The Shape of Water
4. Blade
Runner 2049
5. Baby
Driver
Alternates
6. Wonder
Woman
7. Logan
8. Darkest
Hour
VISUAL EFFECTS
Predictions:
1. Star
Wars: The Last Jedi
2. War for
the Planet of the Apes
3.
4. Blade
Runner 2049
5. Okja
Alternates
6. Dunkirk
7. The
Shape of Water
8. Kong:
Skull Island
MAKEUP
Predictions:
1. Darkest
Hour
2. Guardians
of the Galaxy Vol. 2
3. Wonder
Alternates
4. Bright
5. I,
Tonya
6. Victoria
and Abdul
7. Ghost
in the Shell
ORIGINAL SCORE
Predictions:
1. The
Shape of Water – Alexandre Desplat
2. Phantom
Thread – Johnny Greenwood
3. Dunkirk
– Hans Zimmer
4. Darkest
Hour – Dario Marianelli
5. The
Post – John Williams
Alternates
6. Victoria
and Abdul – Thomas Newman
7. Wodnerstruck –
Carter Burwell
8. Three
Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri – Carter Burwell
ORIGINAL SONG
Predictions:
1. Coco –
“Remember Me”
2. The
Greatest Showman – “This is Me”
3. Mudbound–
“Mighty River”
4. Call Me
by Your Name – “Mystery of Love”
5. The
Star – “The Star”
Alternates
6. Beauty
and the Beast – “Evermore”
7. Marshall
– “Standing Up for Something”
8. Chasing
Coral – “Tell Me How Long”
DOCUMENTARY FEATURE
Predictions:
1. City of
Ghosts
2. Jane
3. Icarus
4. Abacus:
Small Enough to Jail
5. Faces
Places
Alternates
6. Chasing
Coral
7. Strong
Island
8. Last
Men in Aleppo
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