My Predictions for the 91st Academy Awards Nominations

by

Julien Faddoul

The nominations for the 91st Academy Awards are tomorrow morning. Despite their nonsensicality, I always have fun predicting them every year. Here are my final predictions.

I have made the necessary amount of predictions correlating to the limit of each category – 10 for PICTURE, 3 for MAKEUP and 5 for everything else – after which I list my alternates which I have limited myself to only 3. All 24 categories are considered.

BLUE = A lock at a nomination. Bet some money.

BEST PICTURE

The trickiness of this category in terms of predicting nominations always has to do with discerning what number AMPAS will settle on. This year feels like a lighter year, with even a lineup as low as 6 eventual nominees. Though I feel like I always tend to predict lower than what eventually generates.

The top four are certainly safe, but I wouldn’t be shocked if anything else misses. I’m not so definite as others are that Green Book is a sure thing, despite winning three Golden Globes, including Best Picture - Musical/Comedy. The publicists at Universal have dodged several attempts at mudslinging throughout the race in the past 4 months (acrimony over its win at TIFF, Mortensen’s LA press conference, the denunciation of Don Shirley’s family) but it still doesn’t feel as universally beloved as some cynical critics seem to comfortably think.

Double that when it comes to Vice, which has never at any point mustered unequal amounts of admiration and loathing. Being divisive doesn’t necessarily negate generous amounts of No. 1 votes, but when it comes to nomination tallies, it’s better to have secure support. Both Vice and If Beale Street Could Talk suffer from being two of the last films to actually open. Why Annapurna Pictures (which distributed both) decided to shoot themselves in the foot like that is beyond me. Beale Street’s problem, unlike Vice, is that it’s also been underperforming with several awards groups, including the guilds.

The biggest guild awards strike has to go to Black Panther though, which hasn’t been entirely ignored but was snubbed by key crafts unions like the ASC awards, the ACE awards and the Visual Effects Society.

Movies like First Man and Can You Ever Forgive Me both underperformed at the box-office in spite of critical plaudits, and as a result are hanging by a thread here.

And then there’s Bohemian Rhapsody, which in the past month has become the bane of my existence. Despite being UTTER GARBAGE, it has been a regular fixture at all the major checkpoints. Most notably it won the Golden Globe for Picture - Drama. The last time the winner of that award was NOT nominated by AMPAS was The Carindal in 1963!

Predictions:

1. Roma

2. A Star is Born

3. BlackKklansman

4. The Favourite

5. Green Book

6. Bohemian Rhapsody

7. Vice

8. Black Panther

9. If Beale Street Could Talk

10. First Man

Alternates:

Can You Ever Forgive Me

Mary Poppins Returns

A Quiet Place

DIRECTOR

The DGA nominated McKay instead of Lanthimos but AMPAS’s lineup almost never matches theirs 5/5, and the intruder is usually someone external, like a foreigner. Granted, Pawlikowski would better fit that theory since his film actually is foreign, but we have Roma and it’s unlikely for two foreign-language films make an appearance.

I can also envisage a scenario in which McKay makes it in and Farrelly doesn’t. Perhaps I’m underestimating Ryan Coogler (Black Panther)?

Predictions:

1. Roma – Alfonso Cuaron

2. BlackKklansman – Spike Lee

3. A Star is Born – Bradley Cooper

4. Green Book – Peter Farrelly

5. The Favourite – Yorgos Lanthimos

Alternates:

Cold War – Pawel Pawlikowski

If Beale Street Could Talk – Barry Jenkins

Vice – Adam McKay

ACTOR

After the film premiered at Venice, Cooper seemed like he had a lock on this category and the fact that his thunder has been consistently thwarted by Malek throughout the race is one for books. The most vulnerable here is Washington, who could easily miss in favour of Hawke (which I would love!), but all of Hawke’s citations have only come from Critics Groups (no Globes, no SAG, no BAFTA). The only person here who has had everything go right for him is Bale.

Predictions:

1. Vice – Christian Bale

2. Bohemian Rhapsody – Rami Malek

3. A Star is Born – Bradley Cooper

4. Green Book – Viggo Mortensen

5. BlackKklansman – John David Washington

Alternates:

At Eternity’s Gate – Willem Dafoe

First Man – Ryan Gosling

First Reformed – Ethan Hawke

ACTRESS

The simplest of the four acting awards this year. It’s that fifth slot that’s the trouble because there are so many possibilities: Aparicio, Blunt, Kidman, Fisher, Collette, Davis, Roberts, Pike, Wu, Theron…

I am opting for the foreigner from the Best Pic juggernaut over two of my acting Goddesses (Kidman and Blunt), but no matter who gets that fifth slot nothing will shock.

Predictions:

1. The Wife – Glenn Close

2. The Favourite – Olivia Coleman

3. A Star is Born – Lady Gaga

4. Can You Ever Forgive Me – Melissa McCarthy

5. Roma – Yalitza Aparicio

Alternates:

Destroyer – Nicole Kidman

Eighth Grade – Elsie Fisher

Mary Poppins Returns – Emily Blunt

SUPPORTING ACTOR

Annoying, because concerning quality this is the weakest category of the bunch. I’m just not excited about any of these performances (except Hugh Grant, of which I’m probably kidding myself as a possibility).

Elliott and Rockwell have been knocking each other out in every lineup that manifests, but I’m betting both will make it in at the cost of Chalamet missing out.

Predictions:

1. Green Book – Mahershala Ali

2. BlackKklansman – Adam Driver

3. Can You Ever Forgive Me – Richard E. Grant

4. A Star is Born – Sam Elliott

5. Vice – Sam Rockwell

Alternates:

Beautiful Boy – Timothee Chalamet

Black Panther – Michael B. Jordan

Paddington 2 – Hugh Grant

SUPPORTING ACTRESS

King missing at both SAG and BAFTA is truly disturbing. I’m trying not to get into Stone’s and Weisz’s category misplacement but...ugh. Same goes for Blunt. In the end, I’m going with the same lineup as the Globes but I wouldn’t be shocked by anything here.

Predictions:

1. The Favourite – Emma Stone

2. The Favourite – Rachel Weisz

3. Vice – Amy Adams

4. If Beale Street Could Talk – Regina King

5. First Man – Claire Foy

Alternates:

Green Book – Linda Cardellini

Mary Queen of Scots – Margot Robbie

A Quiet Place – Emily Blunt

ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

Call me crazy for betting on Burnham over Schrader but I guess I’m being overall pessimistic on First Reformed this year (a film I love).

Predictions:

1. The Favourite – Deborah Davis, Tony McNamara

2. Green Book – Nick Vallelonga, Brian Currie, Peter Farrelly

3. Vice – Adam McKay

4. Roma – Alfonso Cuaron

5. Eighth Grade – Bo Burnham

Alternates:

The Ballad of Buster Scruggs – Joel Coen, Ethan Coen

Cold War – Pawel Pawlikowski, Janusz Glowacki

First Reformed – Paul Schrader

ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

Most people are predicting A Star is Born here but I just can’t. I would pay actual money for an educated person to explain to me the merits of that screenplay. It’s the fifth incarnation people!

The Death of Stalin would just make me ever so happy, you guys.

Predictions:

1. BlackKklansman – Spike Lee, David Rabinowitz, Charlie Wachtel, Kevin Willmott

2. Can You Ever Forgive Me – Nicole Holofcener, Jeff Whitty

3. If Beale Street Could Talk – Barry Jenkins

4. Leave No Trace – Debra Granik, Anne Rosellini

5. The Death of Stalin – Armando Iannucci, David Schneider, Ian Martin

Alternates:

Black Panther – Ryan Coogler, Joe Robert Cole

Crazy Rich Asians – Peter Ciarelli, Adele Lim

A Star is Born  – Bradley Cooper, Eric Roth, Will Fetters

CINEMATOGRAPHY

I’m going with the ASC lineup. It doesn’t bode well for Morrison or Laxton to have been snubbed by them.

Predictions:

1. Roma – Alfonso Cuaron

2. Cold War – Lukasz Zal

3. The Favourite – Robbie Ryan

4. A Star is Born – Matthew Libatique

5. First Man – Linus Sandgren

Alternates:

Black Panther – Rachel Morrison

Bohemian Rhapsody – Newton Thomas Sigel

If Beale Street Could Talk – James Laxton

PRODUCTION DESIGN

Do I dare go against Stuart Craig, whose work on the Harry Potter franchise has persistently been nominated (including the previous Fantastic Beasts film)?

Predictions:

1. The Favourite – Fiona Crombie, Alice Felton

2. Roma – Eugenio Caballero, Bárbara Enrı́quez

3. First Man – Nathan Crowley, Kathy Lucas

4. Black Panther – Hannah Beachler, Jay Hart

5. Mary Poppins Returns – John Myhre, Gordon Sim

Alternates:

Fantastic Beasts: The Crimes of Grindelwald – Stuart Craig, Anna Pinnock

If Beale Street Could Talk – Mark Friedberg, Kris Moran

A Quiet Place – Jeffrey Beecroft, Heather Loeffler

COSTUME DESIGN

Double nominations for a single designer is not uncommon in this category and Powell is the best in the business. But this year has so many worthy candidates that this award is an especially competitive one.

Predictions:

1. The Favourite – Sandy Powell

2. Black Panther – Ruth E. Carter

3. Mary Poppins Returns – Sandy Powell

4. Bohemian Rhapsody – Julian Day

5. Mary Queen of Scots – Alexandra Byrne

Alternates:

The Ballad of Buster Scruggs – Mary Zophres

Crazy Rich Asians – Mary E. Vogt

Fantastic Beasts: The Crimes of Grindelwald – Colleen Awtood

FILM EDITING

A hard one. Tom Cross was nominated by ACE, so leaving him off will most likely come back to bite me. But this award frequently surprises us with something.

Predictions:

1. A Star is Born – Jay Cassidy

2. Vice – Hank Corwin

3. Bohemian Rhapsody – John Ottman

4. Roma – Alfonso Cuaron, Adam Gough

5. BlackKklansman – Barry Alexander Brown

Alternates:

Black Panther – Debbie Berman, Michael Shawver

The Favourite – Yorgos Mavropsaridis

First Man – Tom Cross

SOUND MIXING

Predictions:

1. A Star is Born

2. Roma

3. Bohemian Rhapsody

4. First Man

5. A Quiet Place

Alternates:

Black Panther

Mission: Impossible - Fallout

Ready Player One

SOUND EDITING

Predictions:

1. A Quiet Place

2. Roma

3. A Star is Born

4. First Man

5. Mission: Impossible - Fallout

Alternates:

Black Panther

Incredibles 2

Ready Player One

VISUAL EFFECTS

As I mentioned earlier, I was rather shocked when the Visual Effects Society snubbed Black Panther, especially since they recognized Avengers: Infinity War (though that is arguably a far more effects heavy aspirant). Solo apparently did very well at the VE bake-off and they almost never ignore a Star Wars film (only once: Revenge of the Sith).

Predictions:

1. Ready Player One

2. Avengers: Infinity War

3. Solo: A Star Wars Story

4. Welcome to Marwen

5. Black Panther

Alternates:

Ant-Man and The Wasp

Christopher Robin

Mary Poppins Returns

MAKEUP & HAIR

Every year this category screws me. Every. Single. Year. So you know what...make of it what you will. Just don’t lock in anything.

Predictions:

1. Vice

2. Border

3. Stan & Ollie

Alternates:

Black Panther

Bohemian Rhapsody

Mary Queen of Scots

Suspiria

ORIGINAL SCORE

It seems to me that whenever Hurwitz is nominated, Britell isn’t and vice-versa. Their achievements are without a doubt unparalleled this year but it certainly gives me pause. Desplat on the other hand has shown up almost everywhere, despite the film not being in the conversation that much.

Predictions:

1. First Man – Justin Hurwitz

2. If Beale Street Could Talk – Nicholas Britell

3. Isle of Dogs – Alexandre Desplat

4. A Quiet Place – Marco Beltrami

5. Black Panther – Ludwig Göransson

Alternates:

The Ballad of Buster Scruggs – Carter Burwell

BlackKklansman – Terence Blanchard

Mary Poppins Returns – Marc Shaiman

ORIGINAL SONG

The difficulty with Mary Poppins Returns is in predicting which song they’ll choose to honour. Perhaps they’ll nominate multiple songs? But whenever I have conversations about the film I always encounter, even from devotees, a displeasure with the film’s soundtrack. But musicals always do well here, so...

Predictions:

1. A Star is Born – “Shallow”

2. Mary Poppins Returns – “The Place Where Lost Things Go”

3. Black Panther – “All the Stars”

4. Dumplin – “Girl in the Movies”

5. RBG – “I'll Fight”

Alternates:

The Ballad of Buster Scruggs – “When a Cowboy Trades His Spurs for Wings”

Mary Poppins Returns – “Trip a Little Light Fantastic”

Quincy – “Keep Reachin”

ANIMATED FILM

Kind of the easiest award this year, since there (boringly) hasn't been much divergence from this lineup. The only reason I haven’t locked in Incredibles 2 is because Pixar sequels have always done remarkably poor with AMPAS. The only one they’ve even nominated is Toy Story 3.

Predictions:

1. Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse

2. Incredibles 2

3. Isle of Dogs

4. Mirai

5. Ralph Breaks the Internet

Alternates:

Early Man

The Grinch

Ruben Brandt, Collector

FOREIGN-LANGUAGE FILM

It’s gonna be really hard to widdle this down to five because all eight of these films have been honoured by other groups in one form or another. Even Kazakhstan's Ayka wouldn’t surprise me.

Predictions:

1. Roma (Mexico)

2. Cold War (Poland)

3. Shoplifters (Japan)

4. Never Look Away (Germany)

5. Capernaum (Lebanon)

Alternates:

Birds of Passage (Columbia)

Burning (South Korea)

The Guilty (Denmark)

DOCUMENTARY FEATURE

This lineup is probably a little light on the tragic, but so many docs this year have gathered momentum.

Predictions:

1. Won’t You Be My Neighbor

2. Free Solo

3. Minding the Gap

4. RBG

5. Shirkers

Alternates:

Hale County This Morning, This Evening

Of Fathers and Sons

Three Identical Strangers

DOCUMENTARY SHORT

Predictions:

1. End Game

2. Period. End of Sentence.

3. My Dead Dad's Porno Tapes

4. A Night at the Garden

5. Zion

Alternates:

Black Sheep

Lifeboat

Women of the Gulag

LIVE-ACTION SHORT

Predictions:

1. Skin

2. Chuchotage

3. Detainment

4. May Day

5. Wale

Alternates:

Caroline

Fauve

Marguerite

ANIMATED SHORT

Predictions:

1. Bao

2. Lost and Found

3. Weekends

4. Age of Sail

5. Bilby

Alternates:

Animal Behavior

Bird Karma

One Small Step