by
Julien Faddoul
The nominations for the 92nd Academy Awards are tomorrow morning. Despite their nonsensicality, I always have fun predicting them every year. Here are my final predictions.
I have made the necessary amount of predictions correlating to the limit of each category – 10 for PICTURE, and 5 for everything else – after which I list my alternates which I have limited myself to only 3. I’m assessing 21/23 categories. I opted to not include the 3 Shorts categories this year, as I have seen literally nothing in contention.
BLUE = A lock at a nomination. Bet some money.
BEST PICTURE
The trickiness of this category in terms of predicting nominations always has to do with discerning what number AMPAS will settle on. I’m thinking nine this year, as I always lowball it and end up being wrong!
You can absolutely lock in the top three, as they have all been honoured with appearances at the Globes, PGA, DGA and SAG. 1917 only missed out at SAG but A) we can chalk that up to its lack of a high-end ensemble and B) its surprise win for the top prize at the Globes certainly makes up for any ambiguity.
Marriage Story missed out on an ensemble nom at SAG too but it did receive three nominations regardless. Baumbach’s omission from the DGA is a little more concerning but the overall buzz for the film has been too high for too long for it to miss in this category.
From that point on we approach an assemblage of films that each have some kind of thorn in their side. Joker will probably not have too-hard-a-time hitting the 5% first-place vote threshold required to place, as it has its band of devotees (and is by far the highest grossing box-office hit here). But I do think people aren’t acknowledging its staggering lack of prestige and snob-appeal as a candidate, which hindered movies like Mary Poppins Returns and A Quiet Place last year.
Jojo Rabbit has the opposite problem: it may not hit the initial 5%, but it should clear that total once spillover reallocations play out. Overall buzz has certainly muted since it won the top price at TIFF in September, but it’s the last remaining film to appear at every single precursor.
Many are writing off Little Women for its subdued performance with precursors (and from audiences in general). But remember that it will have broad support from various Academy branches (actors, writers, designers) due its production values as a whole.
I lose all confidence after that. Ford v Ferrari, Bombshell and The Two Popes have all been steadily losing buzz. Knives Out has the same problem Joker has, only more so. And The Farewell’s stature in Hollywood has been constantly keeping me off-balance throughout the season.
Predictions:
1. Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
2. The Irishman
3. Parasite
4. 1917
5. Marriage Story
6. Joker
7. Jojo Rabbit
8. Little Women
9. Ford v Ferrari
10. Bombshell
Alternates:
The Farewell
Knives Out
The Two Popes
DIRECTOR
I have rearranged this list so many times it's ridiculous. In fact, I started with Pedro Almodoar (Pain and Glory) as my number 3! I was originally going to lock-in the five DGA nominees but have decided to swap Waititi for Gerwig at the last minute. This was such a great year for women directors and I’m deciding to be optimistic that my favourite branch of the academy will want to acknowledge that in some way. This might come back to bite me...
Predictions:
1. Parasite – Bong Joon-ho
2. The Irishman – Martin Scorsese
3. Once Upon a Time in Hollywood – Quentin Tarantino
4. 1917 – Sam Mendes
5. Little Women – Greta Gerwig
Alternates:
Jojo Rabbit – Taika Waititi
Joker – Todd Phillips
Marriage Story – Noah Baumbach
ACTOR
Driver and Phoenix are in, for sure. After that, this category becomes a bloodbath. DiCaprio, Murphy and Edgerton have been campaigning like crazy. Banderas has been hampered by the fact that he’s rehearsing A Chorus Line in Spain. I’m keeping DiCaprio and Bale because of precursor support, and I’m going with Banderas even though Edgerton’s campaign has fiercer because A) his film had an unwise early release and B) Banderas is riding the career-achievement wave more than anyone else here, including Phoenix.
Predictions:
1. Marriage Story – Adam Driver
2. Joker – Joaquin Phoenix
3. Once Upon a Time in Hollywood – Leonardo DiCaprio
4. Ford v Ferrari – Christian Bale
5. Pain and Glory – Antonio Banderas
Alternates:
Dolemite is My Name – Eddie Murphy
The Irishman – Robert De Niro
Rocketman – Taron Edgerton
ACTRESS
The contrary situation to Best Actor: In this category we have a group of women that no one seems to be particularly excited about. I don’t mean in their performances but in their barnstorm narrative. Rest assured, the line-up will be some aggregation of these eight ladies. But everyone here has a credible reason for missing out tomorrow morning, even Zellweger.
Predictions:
1. Judy – Renee Zellweger
2. Marriage Story – Scarlett Johansson
3. Bombshell – Charlize Theron
4. Little Woman – Saoirse Ronan
5. The Farewell – Awkwafina
Alternates:
Clemency – Alfre Woodard
Harriet – Cynthia Erivo
Us – Lupita Nyong'o
SUPPORTING ACTOR
The tightest of the four acting races. The only reason I haven’t locked in Hanks is because of his track record the last 20 years, where he’s been routinely snubbed for some of his most heralded work. Globes went with Hopkins, SAG went with Foxx, but I’m going with Song as the choice representative for Parasite from the actors branch.
Predictions:
1. Once Upon a Time in Hollywood – Brad Pitt
2. The Irishman – Al Pacino
3. The Irishman – Joe Pesci
4. A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood – Tom Hanks
5. Parasite – Song Kang-ho
Alternates:
Just Mercy – Jamie Foxx
Marriage Story – Alan Alda
The Two Popes – Anthony Hopkins
SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Everyone is predicting various scenarios here, including the double nom for Johansson. I might seem a bit crazy for going with Bates, whose film has completely tanked, over Pugh, who is the rising du jour of the year. But I always like to go with at least one left-field acting nominee and for the past 2 years it has occurred in this very category.
Predictions:
1. Marriage Story – Laura Dern
2. Hustlers – Jennifer Lopez
3. Bombshell – Margot Robbie
4. The Farewell – Zhao Shuzhen
5. Richard Jewell – Kathy Bates
Alternates:
Jojo Rabbit – Scarlett Johansson
Little Women – Florence Pugh
The Report – Annette Bening
ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
Tarantino and Wang were ineligible for the WGA (who went with 1917 and Booksmart!)
Predictions:
1. Marriage Story – Noah Baumbach
2. Once Upon a Time in Hollywood – Quentin Tarantino
3. Parasite – Bong Joon-ho, Han Jin-won
4. Knives Out – Rian Johnson
5. The Farewell – Lulu Wang
Alternates:
Bombshell – Charles Randolph
Pain and Glory – Pedro Almodóvar
Dolemite is My Name – Scott Alexander, Larry Karaszewski
ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
I would be quite surprised if it isn’t these five.
Predictions:
1. The Irishman – Steve Zaillian
2. Jojo Rabbit – Taika Watiti
3. Joker – Todd Phillips, Scott Silver
4. The Two Popes – Anthony McCarten
5. Little Women – Greta Gerwig
Alternates:
A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood – Michal Fitzerman-Blue, Noah Harpster
Hustlers – Lorene Scafaria
Richard Jewell – Billy Ray
CINEMATOGRAPHY
I’m going with the Guild line-up here, which is probably foolish as it hardly ever lines up 5/5. I originally thought Widmer would make it in and if he does, I'm going to be kicking myself.
Predictions:
1. 1917 – Roger Deakins
2. Once Upon a Time in Hollywood – Robert Richardson
3. Joker – Lawrence Sher
4. The Irishman – Rodrigo Prieto
5. Ford v Ferrari – Phedon Papamichael
Alternates:
A Hidden Life – Jörg Widmer
The Lighthouse – Jarin Blaschke
Little Women – Yorick Le Saux
PRODUCTION DESIGN
A tough one. Any of these eight candidates (and others not listed) would not surprise me.
Predictions:
1. Once Upon a Time in Hollywood – Barbara Ling; Nancy Haigh
2. 1917 – Dennis Gassner
3. The Irishman – Bob Shaw
4. Joker – Mark Friedberg
5. Parasite – Lee Ha-jun
Alternates:
Ford v Ferrari – Francois Audouy; Peter Lando
Jojo Rabbit – Ra Vincent
Little Women – Jess Gonchor
COSTUME DESIGN
I’ve chosen to exclude Aladdin out of hatred. Is that a bad idea, you think?
Predictions:
1. Once Upon a Time in Hollywood – Arrian Phillips
2. Little Women – Jacqueline Durran
3. Dolemite is My Name – Ruth E. Carter
4. Downton Abbey – Anna Mary Scott
5. Rocketman – Julian Day
Alternates:
Aladdin – Michael Wilkinson
Jojo Rabbit – Mayes C. Rubo
Joker – Mark Bridges
FILM EDITING
This category was bonkers last year so I’m not locking in anyone. Even a Bombshell nom wouldn’t surprise me.
Predictions:
1. The Irishman – Thelma Schoonmaker
2. Ford v Ferrari – Michael McCusker
3. Parasite – Jinmo Yang
4. Once Upon a Time in Hollywood – Fred Raskin
5. Marriage Story – Jennifer Lame
Alternates:
1917 – Lee Smith
Jojo Rabbit – Tom Eagles
Joker – Jeff Groth
SOUND MIXING
Predictions:
1. Ford v Ferrari
2. 1917
3. Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
4. Joker
5. The Irishman
Alternates:
Avengers: Endgame
Rocketman
Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker
SOUND EDITING
Predictions:
1. Ford v Ferrari
2. 1917
3. Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
4. Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker
5. Avengers: Endgame
Alternates:
Joker
The Irishman
Us
VISUAL EFFECTS
Predictions:
1. Avengers: Endgame
2. Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker
3. The Lion King
4. The Irishman
5. Gemini Man
Alternates:
1917
Alita: Battle Angel
Terminator: Dark Fate
MAKEUP and HAIR
Predictions:
1. Bombshell
2. Rocketman
3. Joker
4. Little Women
5. Judy
Alternates:
1917
Dolemite is My Name
Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
ORIGINAL SCORE
Predictions:
1. 1917 – Thomas Newman
2. Joker – Hildur Gudnadottir
3. Little Woman – Alexandre Desplat
4. Jojo Rabbit – Michael Giacchino
5. Marriage Story – Randy Newman
Alternates:
Ford v Ferrari – Marco Beltrami
Motherless Brooklyn – Daniel Pemberton
Pain and Glory – Alberto Iglesias
ORIGINAL SONG
Predictions:
1. Frozen II – “Into the Unknown”
2. Rocketman – “I'm Gonna Love Me Again”
3. Harriet – “Stand Up”
4. Wild Rose – “Glasgow”
5. Toni Morrison: The Pieces I Am – “High Above the Water”
Alternates:
Aladdin – “Speechless”
Breakthrough – “I'm Standing With You”
Toy Story 4 – “I Can't Let You Throw Yourself Away”
ANIMATED FILM
Predictions:
1. Toy Story 4
2. Missing Link
3. I Lost My Body
4. Frozen II
5. Klaus
Alternates:
Abominable
How to Train Your Dragon: The Hidden World
Weathering with You
FOREIGN-LANGUAGE FILM
Predictions:
1. Parasite (South Korea)
2. Pain and Glory (Spain)
3. Les Miserables (France)
4. Atlantics (Senegal)
5. Those Who Remained (Hungary)
Alternates:
Beanpole (Russia)
Corpus Christi (South Korea)
Honeyland (North Macedonia)
DOCUMENTARY FEATURE
Predictions:
1. American Factory
2. One Child Nation
3. Honeyland
4. Apollo 11
5. For Sama
Alternates:
Biggest Little Farm
The Cave
Maiden
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