by
Julien
Faddoul
The
nominations for the 88th Academy Awards are tomorrow morning. Despite their
nonsensicality, I always have fun predicting them every year. Here are my final
predictions.
I
have made the necessary amount of predictions correlating to the limit of each
category – 10 for PICTURE, 3 for MAKEUP and 5 for everything else – after which
I list my alternates which I have limited myself to only 3.
BLUE
= A lock at a nomination. Bet some money.
BEST
PICTURE
La
La Land is obviously head and shoulders above everything
else. It could very well receive 14 nominations, which would tie it with All
About Eve (1950) and Titanic (1997) as the most nominations in
history. Maybe 15 even…probably not.
Moonlight, Manchester and Lion are
all secure. Arrival is almost there.
The question here is how many will the academy ultimately settle on. I have
placed 10 here just because. But in all likelihood a Silence inclusion would be a shock. Hell or High Water, Hidden
Figures and Hacksaw Ridge all
have good reasons to be included, as their positions have remained strong
throughout the ongoing race of awards.
If
we stop there, then there’ll be 8 nominees. That seems feasible. Everything
under Fences is shaky.
Predictions:
1.
La La Land
2.
Moonlight
3.
Manchester by the Sea
4.
Lion
5. Arrival
6. Hell or High Water
7. Hidden Figures
8. Hacksaw Ridge
9. Fences
10. Silence
Alternates
11. Jackie
12. Nocturnal Animals
13. Loving
DIRECTOR
The
DGA line-up included Garth Davis over Mackenzie. And Gibson is also a
possibility. I’m going with Mackenzie over the two Australians because 1) Davis
is far more obscure and 2) I remain unconvinced of the so-called “welcoming
back” of Gibson, who has most likely tarnished his name forever in Hollywood.
On
the other hand, as we saw last year with Ridley Scott, sci-fi films rarely
receive respect for their directorial labour, so Villeneuve is also vulnerable.
Predictions:
1.
La La Land – Damien Chazelle
2.
Moonlight – Barry Jenkins
3. Manchester by the Sea – Kenneth Lonergan
4. Arrival – Denis Villeneuve
5. Hell or High Water – David Mackenzie
Alternates
6. Hacksaw Ridge – Mel Gibson
7. Lion – Garth Davis
8. Silence – Martin Scorsese
ACTOR
This
seems pretty tight to me. Edgerton could get in but I wouldn’t know over whom.
Predictions:
1.
Manchester by the Sea – Casey Affleck
2.
Fences – Denzel Washington
3. La La Land – Ryan Gosling
4. Hacksaw Ridge – Andrew Garfield
5. Captain Fantastic – Viggo Mortensen
Alternates
6. Loving – Joel Edgerton
7. Sully – Tom Hanks
8. Silence- Andrew Garfield
ACTRESS
The
toughest category of the year. All 8 of these possibilities have legitimate
reasons to pop up tomorrow morning. Huppert’s surprise win at the Globes should
mean she’s a lock, but she wasn’t nominated at SAG. Streep's much beloved speech at
that same ceremony has put her on everyone's lips.
Then
we have the icky argument of nominating the African-American women purely out
of guilt.
Your
guess is as good as mine.
Predictions:
1.
La La Land – Emma Stone
2.
Jackie – Natalie Portman
3. Arrival – Amy Adams
4. Elle – Isabelle Huppert
5. Florence Foster Jenkins – Meryl Streep
Alternates
6. 20th Century
Women – Annette Bening
7. Loving – Ruth Negga
8. Hidden Figures – Taraji P. Henson
SUPPORTING
ACTOR
I
cheated and placed 9 candidates here. I added Aaron Taylor-Johnson after his
shocking win at the Globes for what has to be one of the worst performances of
the year. I have decided to ignore it.
Neither
Grant nor Hedges are sure things and I can see either of them falling out for the
four below. This category throughout the years has always been the most
volatile when it comes to nominations.
Predictions:
1.
Moonlight – Mahershala Ali
2.
Lion – Dev Patel
3.
Hell or High Water – Jeff Bridges
4. Florence Foster Jenkins – Hugh Grant
5. Manchester by the Sea – Lucas Hedges
Alternates
6. Hell or High Water – Ben Foster
7. Hidden Figures – Kevin Costner
8. Nocturnal Animals – Aaron Taylor-Johnson
9. Nocturnal Animals – Michael Shannon
SUPPORTING
ACTRESS
I
only put 7 here to make up for my cheat in the previous category.
This
one seems pretty easy. This’ll be the five. Only thing I can see happening is
Spencer switching with her co-star.
Fun
fact: If by some oddity Kidman falls out in favour of Monae, that means
Michelle Williams will find yourself up against four black women.
Predictions:
1.
Fences – Viola Davis
2.
Manchester by the Sea – Michelle
Williams
3.
Moonlight – Naomie Harris
4.
Lion – Nicole Kidman
5. Hidden Figures – Octavia Spencer
Alternates
6. Hidden Figures – Janelle Monae
7. 20th Century
Women – Greta Gerwig
ORIGINAL
SCREENPLAY
Any
of these eight could happen, with the first two being absolutely locked in.
Predictions:
1.
Manchester by the Sea – Kenneth
Lonergan
2.
Hell or High Water – Taylor Sheridan
3. La La Land – Damien Chazelle
4. Captain Fantastic – Matt Ross
5. The Lobster – Yorgos Lanthimos, Efthymis Filippou
Alternates
6. Zootopia – Jared Bush, Phil Johnston, Byron Howard, Rich Moore, Jim Reardon,
Josie Trinidad, Jennifer Lee
7. Toni Erdmann – Maren Ade
8. 20th Century
Women – Mike Mills
ADAPTED
SCREENPLAY
A
much fiercer category than its original counterpart. Many are predicting Ford
but…I…just…can’t bring myself to place that disgusting screenplay on any list.
It might end up costing me.
Predictions:
1.
Moonlight – Barry Jenkins
2.
Lion – Luke Davies
3.
Arrival – Eric Heisserer
4. Hidden Figures – Theodore Melfi, Allison Schroeder
5. Fences – August Wilson
Alternates
6. Nocturnal Animals – Tom Ford
7. Deadpool – Rhett Reese, Paul Wernick
8. Silence – Jay Cocks, Martin Scorsese
ANIMATED
FILM
This
category always finds some way to surprise every year. Therefore, only Zootopia
is safe here. I do, however, feel very confident of the Pixar snub.
Predictions:
1.
Zootopia
2. Kubo and the Two Strings
3. Moana
4. The Red Turtle
5. My Life as a Zucchini
Alternates
6. Your Name
7. Finding Dory
8. Sing!
FOREIGN-LANGUAGE
FILM
Predictions:
1.
Toni Erdmann – Germany
2.
A Man Called Ove – Sweden
3. Salesman – Iran
4. Land of Mine – Denmark
5. It’s Only the End of the
World – Xavier Dolan
Alternates
6. My Life as a Zucchini - Switzerland
7. Tanna – Australia
8. Paradise – Russia
CINEMATOGRAPHY
Predictions:
1.
La La Land – Linus Sandgren
2.
Silence – Rodrigo Prieto
3.
Arrival – Bradford Young
4. Moonlight – James Laxton
5. Lion – Greig Fraser
Alternates
6. Nocturnal Animals – Seamus McGarvey
7. Hail, Caesar! – Roger Deakins
8. Hell or High Water – Giles Nuttgens
PRODUCTION
DESIGN
Predictions:
1.
La La Land – David Wasco; Sandy Reynolds-Wasco
2.
Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them
– Stuart Craig, James Hambige; Anna Pinnock
3. Silence – Dante Ferretti; Francesca Lo Schiavo
4. Jackie – Jean Rabasse; Veronique Melery
5. Arrival – Patrice Vermette; Paul Hotte
Alternates
6. The Handmaiden – Seong-hie Ryu
7. Florence Foster Jenkins – Alan MacDonald
8. Hail, Caesar! – Jess Gonchor; Nancy
Haigh
COSTUME
DESIGN
Predictions:
1.
La La Land – Mary Zophres
2.
Florence Foster Jenkins – Consolata
Boyle
3. Hidden Figures – Renee Ehrlich Kalfus
4. Jackie – Madeline Fontaine
5. The Handmaiden – Seong-hie Ryu
Alternates
6. The Dressmaker – Marion Boyce, Margot Wilson
7. Fantastic Beasts and
Where to Find Them – Colleen Atwood
8. Allied – Joanna Johnston
FILM
EDITING
Predictions:
1.
La La Land – Tom Cross
2.
Hacksaw Ridge – John Gilbert
3. Moonlight – Joi McMillion, Nat Sanders
4. Arrival – Joe Walker
5. Hell or High Water – Jake Roberts
Alternates
6. Manchester by the Sea – Jennifer Lame
7. Nocturnal Animals – Joan Sobel
8. Lion – Alexandre de Francheschi
SOUND
Predictions:
1.
La La Land
2.
Hacksaw Ridge
3.
Arrival
4. Deepwater Horizon
5. Rogue One: A Star Wars
Story
Alternates
6. Sully
7. 13 Hours: The Secret
Soldiers of Benghazi
8. Deadpool
SOUND
EDITING
Predictions:
1.
Hacksaw Ridge
2.
Arrival
3. Deepwater Horizon
4. 13 Hours: The Secret
Soldiers of Benghazi
5. Rogue One: A Star Wars
Story
Alternates
6. Sully
7. La La Land
8. Deadpool
VISUAL
EFFECTS
Predictions:
1.
The Jungle Book
2.
Doctor Strange
3. Arrival
4. Rogue One: A Star Wars
Story
5. Kubo and the Two Strings
Alternates
6. Passengers
7. Fantastic Beasts and
Where to Find Them
8. The BFG
MAKEUP
Predictions:
1. Deadpool
2. Florence Foster Jenkins
3. Star Trek Beyond
Alternates
4. A Man Called Ove
5. Hail, Caesar!
6. The Dressmaker
7. Suicide Squad
ORIGINAL
SCORE
Predictions:
1.
La La Land – Justin Hurwitz
2. The BFG – John Williams
3. Florence Foster Jenkins – Alexandre Desplat
4. Moonlight – Nicholas Brittel
5. Lion – Dustin O'Halloran, Hauschka
Alternates
6. Hidden Figures
– Pharrell Williams, Benjamin Wallfisch
7. Hacksaw Ridge – Rupert Gregson-Williams
8. Jackie – Mica Levi
ORIGINAL
SONG
Predictions:
1.
La La Land – “City of Stars”
2.
Moana –
“How Far I’ll Go”
3. Hidden Figures – “Runnin”
4. Sing Street – Drive it Like You Stole it
5. Miss Sharon Jones – “I’m Still Here”
Alternates
6. La La Land – “Audition”
7. Trolls – “Can’t Stop This Feeling”
8. Rules Don’t Apply – “Rules Don’t Apply”
DOCUMENTARY
FEATURE
Predictions:
1. OJ: Made in America
2. Fire at Sea
3. 13th
4. Life, Animated
5. I am Not Your Negro
Alternates
6. Cameraperson
7. The Eagle Huntress
8. Tower
DOCUMENTARY
SHORT
Predictions:
1. The White Helmets
2. Joe’s Violin
3. Extremis
4. 4.1 Miles
5. The Mute’s House
Alternates
6. Frame 394
7. Close Ties
8. Watani: My Homeland
ANIMATED
SHORT
Predictions:
1. The Head Vanishes
2. Inner Workings
3. Pearl
4. Piper
5. Pear and Cider Cigarettes
Alternates
6. Blind Vaysha
7. Happy End
8. Borrowed Time
LIVE-ACTION
SHORT
Predictions:
1. Nocturne in Black
2. Ennemis Interieurs
3. Silence Nights
4. Timecode
5. Graffiti
Alternates
6. Sing (Mindenki)
7. Le Femme et le TGV
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